Giornate della Ricerca del Dipartimento di Economia di Roma Tre

A cura di:  Attilio Trezzini, Caterina Conigliani, Cristina Vaquero Piñeiro, Davide Romaniello
Editore: RomaTrE-Press
Data di pubblicazione: dicembre 2023
Pagine: 436
ISBN: 979-12-5977-286-2
n° downloads ad oggi: 169
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Abstract

Il volume raccoglie alcuni dei numerosi contributi che hanno animato le Giornate della Ricerca del Dipartimento di Economia di Roma Tre nell’aprile 2023. I contributi pubblicati, come in generale quelli presentati nelle Giornate della Ricerca, coprono tutte le aeree scientifiche degli afferenti al Dipartimento e tutte le principali linee di ricerca all’interno di esse: la teoria economica e della politica economica, gli studi applicati su temi economici, ricerche nel campo delle materie quantitative collegate allo studio dell’economia e della finanza sia dal punto di vista metodologico che applicato.

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Il volume raccoglie alcuni dei numerosi contributi che hanno animato le Giornate della Ricerca del Dipartimento di Economia di Roma Tre nell’aprile 2023. I contributi pubblicati, come in generale quelli presentati nelle Giornate della Ricerca, coprono tutte le aeree scientifiche degli afferenti al Dipartimento e tutte le principali linee di ricerca all’interno di esse: la teoria economica e della politica economica, gli studi applicati su temi economici, ricerche nel campo delle materie quantitative collegate allo studio dell’economia e della finanza sia dal punto di vista metodologico che applicato.

 This volume collects some of the numerous contributions that animated the Research Days of the Department of Economics of Roma Tre in April 2023. The published contributions, as in general those presented in the Research Days, cover all the scientific areas of the Department's afferents and all the main lines of research within them: economic theory and economic policy, applied studies on economic topics, research in the field of quantitative subjects related to the study of economics and finance both from a methodological and applied point of view.

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This volume collects some of the numerous contributions that animated the Research Days of the Department of Economics of Roma Tre in April 2023. The published contributions, as in general those presented in the Research Days, cover all the scientific areas of the Department's afferents and all the main lines of research within them: economic theory and economic policy, applied studies on economic topics, research in the field of quantitative subjects related to the study of economics and finance both from a methodological and applied point of view.

Contributi

Fonti locali di vulnerabilità al cambiamento climatico e ai conflitti armati in Africa orientale

Elena Paglialunga  Federica Cappelli  Giovanni Marin  Mariagrazia D’Angeli  Valeria Costantini 

Our empirical work sheds new light on the climate-conflict nexus by investigating the vulnerability factors which explain why some locations are more likely to engage in armed conflicts than others in the presence of a similar level of exposure to climatic changes. In particular, we focus our analysis on the concept of vulnerability to both climate change and armed conflicts and, accordingly, on the identification of a specific set of factors that enhance vulnerability of some shares of the population at the local level. We employ a Spatial Autoregressive Model to capture the spatial and context-specific dimension of vulnerability factors in driving the climate-conflict nexus in East Africa at a high-resolution geographical level (about 25 km). Results from our analysis provide some interesting insights: first, we find that climate change does not increase conflict risk per sé, but only in the presence of preexisting vulnerabilities. Second, in line with the literature on climate change vulnerability, we find that socioeconomic factors play a key role in the climate-conflict nexus. In particular, vulnerability is enhanced whenever power is not distributed in such a way as to ensure an equitable distribution of resources.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/1

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Modelli Latent Markov per dati longitudinali: utilizzo in ambito econometrico e possibili estensioni

Francesco Dotto 

Our contribution is focused on Latent Markov Models (LM) and some empirical applications in the econometrics context. In particular, we introduce the mathematical and statistical basic notions needed for both interpreting the output of a LM model and understanding the role of the parameters of the model. Furthermore, we present the issues that may arise whenever covariates (discrete or continuous) are inserted within the model. Finally, we present an empirical econometric application tailored at facing the problem of estimating material deprivation.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/2

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Potere contrattuale dei lavoratori e inflazione: un’analisi empirica

Claudia Fontanari  Davide Romaniello  Enrico Sergio Levrero 

The purpose of this study is to create a synthetic measure of workers’ bargainning power and analyze how it relates to inflation in the US economy. We first identify the variables influencing workers’ bargaining power by referring to various categories of variables, including labor market indicators, institutional indicators (such as collective bargaining coverage and union density), and economic characteristics (such as the degree of capital mobility and the proportion of employment by sector). The indicators are then evaluated using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and weights are determined to combine the individual indicators into a composite index. In a subsequent stage, we estimate the effect of our Bargaining index on inflation between the 1968 and the 2018. Thus, the composite index serves two purposes: it reveals the degree to which shifts in the labor market over the past few decades have reduced employees’ negotiating strength and it can be used to examine how changes in the wage negotiation system have an impact on inflation.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/3

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Scelta delle tecniche e mercato dei titoli in un modello stazionario con generazioni sovrapposte

Saverio M. Fratini 

The paper deals with an overlapping generation model with production in which firms issue securities in order to finance the outlay for the costs of production. We assume there are many different commodities, and each of them can be produced by many different methods, forming alternative techniques. Since we focus on stationary conditions, because of the non-substitution theorem, once an interest rate is given, the technique in use and the price system are determined accordingly. Since re-switching and reverse capital deepening are possible in the model we consider, then higher interest rate levels can be associated with the use of technique with a greater net product per worker – namely less labour-intensive techniques. The main result of the paper concerns the possibility of reverse capital deepening as an equilibrium phenomenon. In the event of multiple equilibria, equilibria with a higher interest rate can be associated with a greater net output per unit of labour.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/4

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Ambiente, salute e lavoro nei nuovi articoli 9 e 41 della Costituzione: perimetri regolativi e prospettive di integrazione

Maria Giovannone 

In the field of labour law, among the most critical issues around which the doctrinal and jurisprudential comparison has arisen is that of the employer’s responsibility in the field of health and safety in the context of new jobs, new ways of carrying out work and emerging risks. This debate has recently expanded in the light of the formal introjection of the demands of sustainability in the constitutional dictate and the new concept of environmental protection (including work) introduced by the combined provisions of the new articles. 9 and 41 of the Constitution. With particular reference to labour law, in fact, the constitutional reform feeds the debate on the social purpose of the company and economic activities and introduces new possible prospects for extending the obligations of employer protection also aimed at the environment outside the company. On this point, the critical contribution of the penal and constitutional doctrine was not lacking; therefore, also because of the marked interdisciplinary nature of the theme, the explicit introjection of environmental protection and the principle of sustainability in the Constitutional dictate makes a reflection appropriate. Firstly, on the possible extension of employers’ prevention obligations to the environment outside the organisation of the undertaking. Secondly, on the role that companies, workers and social partners can play in the development of environmental and ecological transition policies. After a critical reflection on the prospects for extending the prevention obligation – and the related employer liability – to the external environment, the paper focuses on possible integrations between environmental protection tools and those of occupational safety protection, in the wake of the experience gained from business organizational models, collective bargaining and other techniques of worker participation.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/5

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Sulla dominanza fiscale e monetaria: un’analisi Markov-switching per l’Italia

Francesco Giuli  Serena Ionta 

This article constructs an empirical Markov-switching narrative for the history of Italian economic policy, focusing on the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy from 1964 to 2021. Estimates of fiscal and monetary policy rules reveal frequent regime shifts. The 1990s were a significant turning point for fiscal policy, as the 1980s were for monetary policy with the transition from de facto to de jure monetary independence. Regarding coordination, the study shows that when monetary policy is active, fiscal policy tends to be passive and vice versa. This indicates an alternation in the stabilisation of debt dynamics between fiscal policy and monetary policy as suggested by the Fiscal Theory of Price Level.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/6

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Smart contract e ‘giusto rimedio civile’ del re-coding tra Rule by Design e Rule of Law

Francesco Longobucco 

The essay emphasizes the responsible role that the jurist is called to play in order to interpret and integrate – in the presence of a smart legal contract – the output of the machine (so-called ‘computer effect’ or ‘code-result’ or ‘fruit contract ex machina’). Hence the opportunity to adopt, as in the Maltese legal system happens, a so-called “hybrid” intelligent agreement model, i.e. focused on the mixture of computer and human language, which shows undoubted advantages in asymmetric agreements (B2C). In another respect, in cases of non-compliance of the smart contract with our legal system, the ‘proper civil remedy’ (atypical) of ‘re-coding’ moves in the direction of ‘re-writing’ the algorithm so as to make the Lex Criptographi(c)a immune to appreciable defects in an eminently legal point of view.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/7

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Reshoring e catene globali del valore durante e dopo la pandemia

Enrico Marvasi 

The Covid-19 pandemic and, more recently, geopolitical tensions related to the war in Ukraine have brought to light some important fragilities of international trade and global value chains (GVCs). In the new, uncertain, scenario, the challenges for businesses and governments are manifold. This paper discusses the consequences of recent shocks on GVCs and firms’ choices in the international context, with particular attention to Italy. The analysis shows that, even before the pandemic, international trade had slowed down, and firms had been operating in an increasingly uncertain global environment for a decade now. Following the shocks, the recovery in trade has been particularly rapid, despite protectionist pressures beginning to emerge from many countries, not always justified from an economic point of view, but certainly motivated by legitimate concerns about the degree of external exposure. The data show, however, that firms have been able to adapt, and few have chosen to bring back previously offshored production activities (reshoring). Meanwhile, GVCs continue to play a major role in international trade. Nonetheless, expensive and difficult adaptations and reconfigurations are underway: the challenge for the future is to understand where the new trends are heading. The article is aimed at an audience that also includes non-experts in economics and international trade. The discussion is non-technical, although based on the scientific literature and the results of some of my recent articles on the subject.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/8

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Cyber catastrophe bond come strumento per il trasferimento del rischio informatico

Alessandro Mazzoccoli  Loretta Mastroeni 

The use of the cloud, and in particular cloud services for storing personal or business data and for running programmes, is becoming increasingly popular, as it is an efficient and cost-effective practice. However, cloud services may not always be available, potentially causing significant losses for both customers and service providers. Typically, in such cases, the provider is obliged to compensate its customers in case of interruptions. However, in order to protect itself against such losses, the supplier may take out an insurance contract, transferring the risk to the insurer and paying an insurance premium. It should be noted that in situations where the cloud service is rarely available, the amount that the insurer would have to reimburse the cloud service provider could become so high as to jeopardise the insurer’s own financial stability. In this study, we propose the adoption of catastrophe bonds as a reinsurance instrument. Specifically, we develop a closed-form formula to determine cat bond prices in the presence of stochastic interest rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our pricing formula in a real-world context.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/9

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Fattori di rischio macroeconomici e rendimenti delle strategie di portafoglio: ipotesi teoriche ed evidenza empirica

Daniela Venanzi  Paolo Matteucci 

From Fama-French (1993) and Carhart (1997) studies, which identify size, value, and momentum factors in addition to market risk as significant drivers of stock returns, the micro-finance research addressed the measurement of macroeconomic factors’ impacts on returns of portfolio strategies based on these multi-factor models. These analyses could be crucial in explaining the low or negative correlation often found in literature between the returns of such strategies (Cooper-Priestley 2009; Avramov et al. 2012; Asness et al. 2013; Wisniewski-Jackson 2020; Dahlquist-Hasseltoft 2020). The contribution of this paper is twofold: i) to explain the theoretical foundation of expected impacts of the main macroeconomic factors on the returns of value and momentum strategies regarding equity and bond asset classes; ii) to verify whether these relationships are supported (in terms of sign and statistical significance) by the most recent empirical literature. The analysis shows that: i) univocal hypotheses on the expected links cannot be formulated; the causes of persistent returns of the two strategies, in fact, can be explained by adopting different theoretical perspectives, behavioural vs risk-premium models, which assume different linkages with macroeconomic factors; ii) the empirical findings are mixed; they could be also explained by differences, among studies, in country samples (Continental Europe, Emerging Markets, UK, Developed Asia, and USA), time periods, and testing methodology used. Nonetheless, the provided literature review is useful in delineating a comprehensive framework of the expected and empirically observed links.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/10

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Gli effetti perversi degli incentivi all’occupazione in Italia: nuove evidenze empiriche

Edoardo Santoni  Fabrizio Patriarca  Margherita Scarlato 

Tax credits for job creation in Italy have been the major policy response to employment crises provided by the political majorities alternating at the governments in the last decades. In 2016, an untargeted employer-borne payroll tax cut was introduced to promote permanent hirings. In this paper we use matched employer-employee data and carry out a firm-level analysis of this measure. We estimate individual and firm effects through a standard AKM model to highlight the characteristics and wage-setting policies of the beneficiary firms. The empirical analysis shows that the take-up rate is higher for firms which pay lower wages and are less competitive. This evidence cast doubts on the effectiveness of active labour market policies based on untargeted employerborne payroll tax cuts.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/11

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Distribuzione del reddito e saggio del profitto in Marx e negli economisti classici: uno studio comparato

Giovanni Scarano 

The paper argues that the concern to determine the rate of profit, attributed to the classics by modern surplus approach, was not the main focus in most classical authors before Ricardo. Moreover, this theme did not have a central place in Marx’s analysis at all. In fact, according to Marx, a uniform rate of profit was only one way to determine the distribution of surplus value among the owners of capital in proportion to the capital invested. On the contrary, the distribution of income between capitalists and workers was strictly determined by the rate of surplus value. Moreover, Marx used his own version of the labour theory of value – very different from that of Smith and Ricardo – not to determine the rate of profit and production prices, but to analyse the dynamics of economic aggregates and bring to light the inner social nature of production and distribution processes. In this context, Marx’s rate of profit was only an aggregate measure of the maximum potential growth rate.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/12

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Considerazioni sulla nozione di sostituibilità a partire dal “prodotto marginale netto” di Marshall

Paolo Trabucchi 

The paper looks at the reactions that Marshall’s highly controversial notion of a ‘marginal net product’ has elicited among neoclassical economists from the 1930s to the 1970s. The immediate purpose is to highlight the radically different responses that traditional neoclassical theory, on the one hand, and its neo-Walrasian reformulation, on the other, have given to the problem that seems to underlie Marshall’s notion, namely, the difficulty in grounding the notion of factor substitution on purely ‘empirical’ considerations. It is further suggested that not only the traditional position, based as it is on the notion of capital as a ‘single quantity’, cannot be accepted, but that the same applies, though for different reasons, to the neo-Walrasian position.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/13

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La dipendenza della crescita dalla redditività del capitale nella letteratura kaleckiana: una valutazione critica

Attilio Trezzini  Luigi Salvati 

Kaleckian models can be considered as one of the most relevant sets of theoretical works which study growth as a demand-led phenomenon. In these models, the dependence of the pace of accumulation on some measure of the profitability of capital is assumed. This article identifies the theoretical underpinnings of this assumed dependence and traces its origins to the work of Kalecki and Joan Robinson. However, the analysis of the arguments, partially already present in the literature, leads to argue that this fundamental assumption of the Kalecki models is not sufficiently supported as its cruciality would require. Indeed, the theoretical underpinnings of this assumed dependence are vulnerable to a number of theoretical criticisms.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/14

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Indicazioni Geografiche tra sviluppo locale e internazionalizzazione

Cristina Vaquero-Piñeiro 

Starting from recent studies on the socio-economic effects triggered by the Geographical Indications (GI) scheme, this article aims to highlight the main results obtained by presenting them in a concise and easy-to-read version, emphasizing the strengths of the GI system for local development and trade performance. Employing an empirical territorial analysis methodology, studies investigated the impact of GIs on (i) local development, by examining the population and employment growth rates across various sectors of the local economy, and (ii) the internationalization of regions, by considering exports and the attractiveness of foreign direct investments. The analyses conducted have unequivocally demonstrated that GIs constitute a pivotal driver of value creation and success for the regions involved. The GI system stands out among policy tools that, if well utilized, have significant potential not only for the competitiveness of the agri-food sector but also for the sustainable development of its territories.

DOI: 10.13134/979-12-5977-286-2/15

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